Questions (for you)

Please help me understand the Google+ Downfall debate

The Google+ naysayers are coming out of the woodwork thick and fast, proclaiming the death of the network before it’s really got any traction. However, I’m deeply confused and need something explaining to me.

If you read this Mashable article, you’ll see that traffic to Google+ spiked 1200% post launch and traffic has now plummeted 60%.

In a way, this isn’t surprising. Early adopters would have flocked in, and some would have left. When the platform opened up, secondary adopters would have shot over for a look, and some would have left.

This is only natural. After all, we all want to check out the new thing and some of us won’t like it (of course some people thought it was too quiet – but that’s a function of the early stage of the development).

We expect a fast uptake, an early drop off and then a long, steady climb up. Facebook didn’t dominate the world over night after all.

Anyway, what I don’t understand are the numbers.

And big numbers scare me. I can’t do the math on 1200% of 25million users.

So let’s pretend that on Day One (20th September, the date of the public launch), 10 users visited Google+.

A 1200% spike gives us 120 users.

A 60% drop-off from 120 users gives us 48 users.

So, compared to Day One in September, is a 480% increase in users.

Thus, compared to 20 September – a period of 22 calendar days, there are 4.8 times the number of users on the network.

Have I missed something? Because if I haven’t, these numbers don’t look too bad to me…

In my opinion, the reports of Google+’s death are highly over-rated.


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